Black Friday Statistics 2026: The Numbers That Matter, Plus Real China Fulfillment Data
By Bojan Dimov September 29, 2026 10 min read 
The Black Friday statistics 2026 sellers quote most: Shopify merchants sold $14.6 billion over Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2025, up 27%, and Adobe forecasts a record $275.1 billion in US online holiday spending for 1 November to 31 December 2026, up 6.7%. This page collects the 2025 results, the 2026 forecasts, the key dates, carrier surcharges and returns in one place, every figure with its source and date. It also adds a table nobody else publishes: measured end-customer shipping costs from China by destination and parcel weight.
Last updated 29 September 2026. Next update 1 December 2026, with the 2026 Black Friday and Cyber Monday results.
BFCM 2025 results
Shopify, Black Friday Cyber Monday 2025 (Shopify, 2 December 2025)
| Metric | Result |
|---|---|
| Sales across Shopify merchants | $14.6 billion, up 27% (24% at constant currency) |
| Shoppers | More than 81 million |
| Peak sales minute | $5.1 million at 12:01pm Eastern on Black Friday |
| Average cart | $114.70 |
| Cross-border orders | 16% of all orders |
| Top countries | United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Germany, Canada |
| Top categories | Cosmetics, clothing tops and pants, activewear, fitness and nutrition |
Shopify's figure is global gross merchandise volume, online and in store, including shipping and taxes, over the four days from early Friday in New Zealand to late Monday in California.
Adobe, US online holiday 2025 (Adobe, 2 December 2025; Adobe, 7 January 2026)
| Metric | Result |
|---|---|
| Black Friday | $11.8 billion, up 9.1% |
| Cyber Monday | $14.25 billion, up 7.1% |
| Cyber Week | $44.2 billion, up 7.7% |
| Thanksgiving | $6.4 billion, up 5.3% |
| Full season, 1 November to 31 December | $257.8 billion, up 6.8% |
| Buy now, pay later on Cyber Monday | $1.03 billion |
| Mobile share of the season | 56.4% |
| Traffic from generative AI tools | Up 693.4% on the season |
Adobe, peak discounts by category, holiday 2025 (percent off listed price, Adobe, 7 January 2026)
| Category | Peak discount |
|---|---|
| Electronics | 30.9% |
| Toys | 29.6% |
| Apparel | 25.1% |
| TVs | 24.3% |
| Computers | 23.4% |
| Sporting goods | 20.3% |
| Appliances | 20.2% |
| Furniture | 18.8% |
The National Retail Federation reported a record 202.9 million shoppers from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday 2025, and holiday sales growth of 4.1% for November and December 2025 on its Retail Monitor data (NRF).
2026 holiday forecasts
| Forecast | Figure | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US online holiday spend | $275.1B, up 6.7% | 1 Nov to 31 Dec 2026 | Adobe, 28 Sep 2026 |
| October online spend | $95.8B, up 8% | October 2026 | Adobe, 28 Sep 2026 |
| Prime Big Deal Days (6 to 7 Oct) | $9.9B, up 9.2% | All US online spend on those two days | Adobe, 28 Sep 2026 |
| Cyber Week | $47.5B, up 7.4% | Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday | Adobe, 28 Sep 2026 |
| Cyber Monday (30 Nov) | $15.1B, up 6.2% | Single day | Adobe, 28 Sep 2026 |
| Black Friday (27 Nov) | $12.9B, up 9.2% | Single day | Adobe, 28 Sep 2026 |
| Thanksgiving (26 Nov) | $6.9B, up 8.5% | Single day | Adobe, 28 Sep 2026 |
| Mobile share of the season | 57.4% | US online | Adobe, 28 Sep 2026 |
| Buy now, pay later | $21.3B, up 6.6% | November and December | Adobe, 28 Sep 2026 |
| Traffic from AI tools to retail sites | Up 130% | Clicks from AI services, US | Adobe, 28 Sep 2026 |
| Holiday ecommerce | Up 7.5% to 8.4%, $316.1B to $318.9B | US, Nov 2026 to Jan 2027, Census basis | Deloitte, 10 Sep 2026 |
| Total holiday retail | Up 4.0% to 4.8%, $1.70T to $1.71T | US, Nov 2026 to Jan 2027 | Deloitte, 10 Sep 2026 |
| AI agent traffic | 20% of holiday ecommerce traffic | Bots and agents, including price scrapers | Salesforce, 20 Jul 2026 |
| Social commerce | Growing 9x faster than traditional ecommerce | Salesforce global data | Salesforce, 20 Jul 2026 |
| Planned gift spend | $708 per shopper, down 2% | US consumer survey | PwC, 8 Sep 2026 |
| Shoppers planning to use AI | 29%, with 4% expecting to buy gifts through AI tools | US consumer survey | PwC, 8 Sep 2026 |
Adobe also expects discounts of up to 30% off list prices during Cyber Week 2026, with electronics at 30% and toys at 29%. Do not add these sources together or compare them directly: Adobe measures US online spending, Deloitte uses US Census data over November to January, Salesforce uses global data, and PwC surveys US consumers. The NRF normally publishes its holiday forecast in early November.
The Drop
Five winning products every week. Real margins, real factories, ready to import.
2026 key dates
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 1 to 7 Oct 2026 | China's National Day holiday; most factories closed |
| 6 to 7 Oct 2026 | Amazon Prime Big Deal Days |
| 11 Nov 2026 | Singles Day (11.11) |
| 26 Nov 2026 | Thanksgiving (US) |
| 27 Nov 2026 | Black Friday |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Small Business Saturday |
| 30 Nov 2026 | Cyber Monday |
| 14 Dec 2026 | Green Monday |
| 17 Dec 2026 | USPS recommended ship-by date, Ground Advantage and First-Class Mail, lower 48 |
| 18 Dec 2026 | USPS recommended ship-by date, Priority Mail |
| 19 Dec 2026 | USPS recommended ship-by date, Priority Mail Express |
| 25 Dec 2026 | Christmas Day |
| 16 to 17 Jan 2027 | Carrier peak surcharges end |
| 5 Feb 2027 | Lunar New Year's Eve |
| 6 Feb 2027 | Chinese New Year |
| 20 Feb 2027 | Lantern Festival |
Sources: Amazon; US Office of Personnel Management; US Small Business Administration; USPS, 22 Sep 2026; Hong Kong Observatory; China's State Council for the National Day holiday. China has not yet published its official 2027 Spring Festival holiday schedule. For orders shipped from China, the order-by dates are in the Q4 cutoff calendar.
Shipping surcharge statistics
| Carrier | Window | Residential charge (before / peak / after) | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS | 27 Sep 2026 to 16 Jan 2027; residential from 25 Oct; peak 22 Nov to 26 Dec | $0.50 / $0.75 / $0.50 | $0.40 / $0.60 | +25% |
| FedEx | 28 Sep 2026 to 17 Jan 2027; residential from 26 Oct; peak 23 Nov to 27 Dec | $0.50 / $0.80 / $0.50 | $0.40 / $0.65 | +23% to +25% |
| USPS | 4 Oct 2026 to 17 Jan 2027, one schedule | Ground Advantage commercial +$0.40 to +$7.70 per parcel | +$0.30 to +$5.50 | Average 6.0% vs 5.3% |
| DHL eCommerce (US) | 25 Oct 2026 to 16 Jan 2027; peak 22 Nov to 26 Dec | $0.50 / $0.90 / $0.50 | $0.62 flat | Higher at peak |
| Canada Post | 2 Nov 2026 to 10 Jan 2027 | Oversize and unpackaged surcharge C$30 | C$21 | +43% |
| Australia Post | No peak fee in 2026 | None |
USPS holiday prices sit on top of an 8% time-limited increase in force from 26 April 2026 to 17 January 2027. Sources and details are in 2026 peak season surcharges.
Returns statistics
| Statistic | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share of 2025 retail sales returned | 15.8%, $849.9 billion | NRF and Happy Returns, 15 Oct 2025, retailer estimates |
| Share of online sales returned | 19.3% | NRF and Happy Returns |
| Share of holiday sales retailers expect back | 17% | NRF and Happy Returns |
| Share of returns that are fraudulent | 9% | NRF and Happy Returns, merchants that track fraud, excluding wardrobing |
| When holiday returns happen | The vast majority in January | NRF Winter Holiday FAQs |
| Shoppers who admit wardrobing | 27%, and 49% of Gen Z | NRF and Happy Returns consumer survey |
| Merchants citing false "not received" claims | 52% | Merchant Risk Council 2026 report |
What these numbers mean for a store shipping from China, where sending goods back rarely makes sense, is in holiday returns 2026. The prevention side is in how DTC brands cut returns from 8% to 2%.
What shipping from China actually costs
These are end-customer prices from our public shipping calculator, standard service, general goods, taken on 29 September 2026. Electronics and battery goods carry a 1.18x rate multiplier.
| Parcel | United States | United Kingdom | Germany | Australia | Canada |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 kg | $6.90 | $6.04 | $6.18 | $6.29 | $6.54 |
| 0.2 kg | $8.31 | $7.31 | $7.49 | $7.61 | $7.89 |
| 0.5 kg | $15.09 | $11.63 | $12.00 | $12.15 | $12.55 |
| 1.0 kg | $22.25 | $20.00 | $20.70 | $20.90 | $21.55 |
| 2.0 kg | $36.72 | $32.75 | $34.05 | $34.35 | $35.40 |
Freight share of the sale by gift category, US standard service. Sale prices are illustrative examples a merchant might set.
| Category | Typical parcel | Shipping to the US | Example sale | Freight share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jewelry | 0.1 kg | $6.90 | $35 | 19.7% |
| Apparel | 0.4 kg | $11.68 | $40 | 29.2% |
| Phone accessories | 0.2 kg | $8.31 | $25 | 33.2% |
| Beauty tools | 0.3 kg | $10.09 | $30 | 33.6% |
| Kitchen gadgets | 1.0 kg | $22.25 | $35 | 63.6% |
| Fitness gear | 1.5 kg | $29.49 | $45 | 65.5% |
| Winter sports | 2.5 kg | $43.96 | $60 | 73.3% |
The headline: freight takes about 20% of a jewelry sale and over 70% of a winter-gear sale. Which gifts survive that math is in Q4 dropshipping products, and what a discount does to it is in Black Friday discount math.
Cite this page
Journalists and writers are welcome to use these figures. Please credit the original source for third-party statistics, and for the China shipping tables use:
Source: Peregrine Ship, "Black Friday Statistics 2026", peregrineship.com/blog/black-friday-statistics/, updated 29 September 2026.
The rest of our Q4 series: how brands are preparing for Q4 2026, what happens to orders in Black Friday week, AI shopping agents at peak, cutting WISMO tickets and Chinese New Year 2027.
Shipping from China this season? See coverage for every lane, or connect your store.
Last reviewed 29 September 2026.
Frequently asked questions
How much was spent on Black Friday 2025?
US shoppers spent $11.8 billion online on Black Friday 2025, up 9.1%, according to Adobe. Cyber Monday brought $14.25 billion, up 7.1%, and the full Cyber Week from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday reached $44.2 billion, up 7.7%. The whole 2025 holiday season, 1 November to 31 December, totalled $257.8 billion online in the US.
How much did Shopify merchants sell on BFCM 2025?
Shopify merchants sold $14.6 billion over Black Friday Cyber Monday 2025, up 27%, or 24% at constant currency, to more than 81 million shoppers. Sales peaked at $5.1 million a minute at 12:01pm Eastern on Black Friday, the average cart was $114.70, and 16% of orders were cross-border.
When is Black Friday 2026?
Black Friday 2026 is Friday 27 November, the day after US Thanksgiving on 26 November. Small Business Saturday is 28 November and Cyber Monday is 30 November. Adobe forecasts $12.9 billion of US online spending on Black Friday 2026 and $15.1 billion on Cyber Monday, the biggest day of the season.
What is the 2026 holiday sales forecast?
Adobe forecasts a record $275.1 billion in US online holiday spending from 1 November to 31 December 2026, up 6.7%, plus $95.8 billion in October. Deloitte forecasts US holiday ecommerce up 7.5% to 8.4%, to between $316.1 billion and $318.9 billion, over November to January. The NRF usually publishes its forecast in early November.
What percentage of holiday sales are returned?
Retailers surveyed by the NRF and Happy Returns expect 17% of holiday sales to be returned, against an overall 2025 return rate of 15.8% and 19.3% for online sales. The NRF says the vast majority of holiday returns happen in January. These figures are retailer estimates from a survey of large US merchants.
How Brands Are Preparing for Q4 2026: What the Data Says, and What It Means If You Source From China
Adobe forecasts a record $275.1B online this holiday season. How brands are preparing for Q4 2026, and what each trend means for a China-sourced store.
Q4 Peak Season From China: The Cutoff Dates That Decide Your Black Friday
Black Friday is 27 November 2026. Golden Week closes China 1 to 7 October and 11.11 eats capacity from 21 October. Here is the working backwards calendar.
What a QC Photo Check Actually Catches: Inside a Shenzhen Inspection
A Shenzhen operator walks through a real QC inspection: what gets checked in order, what AQL sampling proves, and the four things a photo can never catch.
The Drop
Five winning products every week. Real margins, real factories, ready to import.